With the White House a few short blocks away, I strode up to the National Geographic Museum and promptly entered the wrong door. After finding the right entrance, I found myself face to face with a warrior and his horse – both almost 2,000 years old.

Along with about 30 bloggers and photographers from across DC, I was invited to a sneak peek of National Geographic’s new exhibit, “Terra Cotta Warriors: Guardians of China’s First Emperor.” I’ve been telling you about this for a few months and I really could not wait to get in and take a look.

The exhibit finally opened today but yesterday evening I got the chance to be slightly more than an armchair adventurer. I also got to take pictures which you will not, so if you go please leave the camera in your bag.

Featuring the largest number of terra cotta figures ever to travel to the United States for a single exhibition, the collection showcases 15 terra cotta figures from the tomb of China’s first emperor. It also highlights 100 sets of artifacts including weapons, stone armor, coins and jade jewelry among many other items.

Stone armor & detail

Considered by China to be Grade I artifacts, the collection sent to the United States is literally priceless. My notes from the sneak peek contain words like “remarkable”, “astounding” and “beautifully curated exhibit.” The setting is serene and organized as though one where walking through a pavilion or elegant home.

The exhibition will run through March 31, 2010. Hours are 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., with extended hours on Wednesdays until 9:00 p.m.Tickets are $12 for adults and $10 for children 2-12 and seniors. Kids under 2 are free. For more information, visit www.warriorsdc.org or call (202) 857-7700.

As a special benefit, the PIMCO Foundation, an exhibition sponsor, is partnering with the museum to offer 200 free tickets every Wednesday evening.

I want to thank the National Geographic staff for hosting this special event and for a remarkable show. Here are some of my favorite shots from last evening:

For information about this remarkable and rare show, please visit its site at www.warriorsdc.org.

It’s still an ongoing shift, but the edges of the curve of the new pathway are becoming clearer.

In plain terms, what is changing, and by extension changing how companies market their wares, is that basic level of customer loyalty to a brand is becoming fragmented and layered. A simple statement like, “I like Ralph Lauren” is now more of an, “I like Ralph Lauren polo shirts, but I like J. Press oxfords. And I prefer vintage jeans.” The cache of a single brand defining a customer’s life is fast fading.

Combine that with a collapsed economy and gutted luxury market and you have a rapidly evolving landscape when it comes to telling all your potential customers exactly who you are and why you matter. And speaking of numbers, don’t expect to see the like of 2008 sales figures until at least 2012. From couture to watches and handbags to footwear, the overall luxury market has significantly retracted. And that directly affects the related mass luxury and aspirational markets.

Another factor is the quality issue. With purchases being scrutinized by customers like never before, those labels that grew at a global scale and licensed out all their branded accessories may face the wrath of buyers tired of sub-par quality for the sake of the name. It’s fair to say that smaller brands with tight controls on design, production and quality – and who actually make things people want to buy – will win out in the coming loyalty game. Luxury again is going to mean exclusivity.

ALL ABOUT THE GUYS
Not all is totally bleak, however. Menswear is faced with another, albeit happier, wrinkle. All those men who for generations did not care much about this season’s Pantone color or whether summer scarves are “in” are not only becoming active in their fashion choices but actually becoming market movers. Across the spectrum of retail, men are taking a more active role in outfitting their own wardrobes, carefully selecting accessories and fussing over things like quality and provenance. Retailers quickly took notice and have both broadened and deepened their menswear selections.

The reasons are myriad, but many men have shaken off the stale myth that they don’t care about style, fashion, luxury and looking good. When Off The Cuff hit the web way back in 2006, most of the sites now listed in OTC’s blog roll did not even exist. Today however, guys are looking for help and advice on all matters sartorial. Men now actively seek out information and feedback about products, brands and trends that interest them.

More to the point, they are also looking for validation and community about the brands that they like. The brand itself is not enough; they want to be part of a sartorial tribe, if you will. To be sure, there is also a strong desire to stand alone, to be unique. We all want the one thing that sets us apart from the herd – but not too far. Most of us want to stand out just enough to let the others know that we are our own man, but not be a jerk about it.

For example, I’ll be writing shortly about Kobold watches. The upstart high-end adventure watch company is now 10 years old but still a niche brand and many of its adherents like it that way. To them it adds a layer of respectable obscurity to something most men consider a key marker of status and personality. In a sense, its unique personality increases its value.

As the concept of what exactly a brand means and who decides if it’s worth something becomes more decentralized, defining who you are is becoming more personal and individual. And with men educating themselves about style, fashion, etiquette and luxury, brands that heretofore could consider themselves one-stop-shops will have to change their approach.

SHIFTING GEARS
Some large brands are trying to address this issue. J. Crew, a company that now intently focuses on its male customers, developed the Liquor Store men’s shop in New York’s SoHo to highlight limited edition wares. J. Crew also produces a regular men’s only catalog that stresses unique product collaborations with specialized partners.

This approach allows the overall brand to remain whole but provide customers with a sense of individuality and more importantly, the feeling that these specialized products meet a higher standard, like Red Wing boots for example.

It all boils down to a growing customer base that simply does not need to be told who they are or what they really want or what kind of life they should lead. They may read lots of fashion and style magazines and check out yours truly on blogger, but they are the ones who decide what their “look” is. The brands need to meet their approval.

The Panerai Marina

Let’s say I like Panerai watches (who doesn’t?), and maybe I want to buy one. I look through the company website, of course. But I also check out the blogosphere and look up feedback on specific models. Who’s tested and reviewed one, and if so which one? Any tweets? Where can I find one on the secondary market, and what does Watch Report or Hodinkee say? All this before I ever get close to a salesman or company representative.

IT’S ALL ABOUT ME (AND YOU)
In my own case, there are several brands that right off the bat fit my own self image: J. Crew, J. Press, Drakes London, Michael Bastain, Ralph Lauren and Slowear for example. But it’s not only clothing. When I think of my personal brand, I also think of Monocle magazine, Filson bags, my favorite Omas 360 pen, Moleskine notebooks or the sterling silver money clip from Tiffany that was a gift from my wife. Even the waxed cord from the hang tag on my Jack Spade bag connects me to that brand just a little bit more. I wear it on my wrist.

All of these outside brands are part of my own personal brand, but I am not a whole-cloth adherent to any one of them. Basically, I’m vetting the brand to see if it meets my standards and fits into my life.

Since people now have multiple sources to learn about style and fashion, history, culture, craftsmanship and etiquette – all the things that go into one’s sense of personal taste and style – a “brand” is now more about the customer than, well, the brand.

The brand needs to fit who I am, not the other way around.

When it works well the customer clearly and deeply identifies with the brand. When it doesn’t work, more specifically when the brand lets the customer down in some way, the old loyalty can be almost impossible to win back.

In menswear, brand loyalty has historically been a deep seated thing. While women are still targeted by designer trends, men traditionally stick with a brand they like and trust. Over the past few years, designers and marketing departments have been working overtime to encourage men to think more like women – season to season, for example. Thankfully that tactic has not been too successful.

Ultimately though, that all matters less and less because of what happened during last year’s holiday shopping season. When the luxury retail economy collapsed along with everything else, the jig was up. In less than one year, the very concept of brand loyalty and even the basic thought process of how a consumer sees their favorite brand, logo or company had dramatically changed.

The Crash of Mass Couture
It all started with Saks Fifth Avenue.

There were already fears about economic problems in the months leading up to the 2008 holiday shopping season. But as Black Friday rolled around, the retailing earth shook when, without any pretense or warning Saks, the bastion of luxury retail, preemptively slashed prices on designer clothes by 70 percent.

This was unheard of; the designers from whom Saks Fifth Avenue purchased the high-end goods were caught totally off guard and other major luxury retailers were forced to quickly follow suit. Soon after, boutiques and then second tier retailers were forced to massively reduce prices.

A cardinal rule of luxury retail had been broken and overnight already skittish consumers were suddenly wondering if their Louis Vuitton bag or designer jeans were ever worth what they had paid only the day before. (The text of the original WSJ article on this fascinating story and reader commentary can be found here, courtesy of StyleZeitgiest.com)

What occurred next was nothing less than a reshaping of the luxury landscape. Saks had correctly surmised that this was the last hurrah of the luxury-for-all boom years and acted in an appropriately dramatic fashion to try and salvage what sales it could from a rapidly deteriorating market. The rest of the high-end retail universe soon saw the writing on the wall and slashed their already low holiday sales prices to the bone and prayed for the best. Then they slashed again.

For many consumers, the magic was gone; the spell of mass-market exclusivity broken. The value that customers saw in their luxury goods – clothing, accessories, watches and even automobiles – was now being questioned. What is the real worth of my Gucci briefcase?

It was bad enough that mass-luxury retailers like LVMH Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy, Gucci, Coach, Prada and even Tiffany & Co., had diluted their luxury status by aggressively courting middle class consumers with mid-priced products to drive their incredible growth. Now, they were no longer luxury brands, they were more like luxury image brands.

In a race to capture aspirational money, these companies had targeted average folks who wanted to live slices of the high life by way of expensive accoutrements. In doing so, many left disillusioned the truly wealthy who had helped build up the brand’s cache to begin with.

When the bottom fell out of the retail market, all those teenagers and newly minted MBAs (e.g. those who acted wealthy because they could float a luxurious life on credit) vanished overnight. Just like that, the plastic powered cash cow of mass luxury stopped spending.

Then the other hand crafted cordovan slip-on dropped. As the economic tsunami kept on rolling it ultimately pulled under a formerly recession-proof demographic: truly wealthy people. They may not all be broke, but they sure stopped spending. When people who are actually rich stop buying things you know it’s bad.

As the dust continues to clear only one brand name luxury label remains relatively unscathed – Hermes. The company, while always appreciating and welcoming their less than moneyed customers, never changed its brand or marketing to exclusively attract them.

A brand that did not compromise

Hermes is unabashedly a luxury brand and has never apologized for it. This kind of loyalty to their primary customer base, those with disposable cash money, has helped the company remain relatively secure during this period of upheaval.

In fact, while its peers’ profits are firmly in negative territory, Hermes first quarter sales have already grown by 3.2 percent. And the added benefit of Hermes never embracing “logoed” retailing is paying dividends because it is now considered unseemly, should you have the money, to flaunt designer brands. A Hermes bag, though prohibitively expensive, is luxuriously devoid of logos or even a nameplate.

Hermes, therefore, is able to thrive in this downturn because its obsessive focus on quality, honesty and value (at least to those who can afford its offerings) was always true to the brand. It never lost its mystique, the most valuable asset of a luxury firm.

For all those other brands that had heretofore defined the lives we all were supposed to want, everything had changed. They suddenly looked jaded and false, pretentious and gaudy. In the blink of an eye everyone realized that they had been living in someone else’s marketing plan.

Without those bands and their worlds to define us, how would we now define what brands meant to us?

All About “You”
It turns out that many smaller and specialized brands had been waiting for their shot at the brass ring. At the same time, people began to turn away from mega brands and finally think about what message they were telegraphing about themselves. As they looked around, they began to see other options in design, craftsmanship, cost, style and quality.

Those global brands, while still important, had lost much of their mystique. Luxury prices had been grossly out of whack if only because we kept paying them. No longer did we want the “it bag” or “it shirt” just because a glossy ad said we should. Simplicity as a value was taking hold.

Enduring style and expressing personal taste became cool. As consumers now look for the local and unique, for things with long lived value, craftsmanship is again becoming prized. And that goal of simplicity does not mean cheap or disposable; quite the opposite. At its core, the emerging argument is that if I’m going to buy something expensive and luxurious, I want it to be unique and hand crafted. Instead of five “luxury” off the rack suits, I want one or two custom suits that will last for years.

My things now need meaning and need to fit me, not the other way around.

With consumers taking over the job of promoting or dismissing luxury goods via blogs (like this one), twitter, rating sites and simply by communicating with each other and bypassing traditional advertising altogether, the definition of branding is changing as well.

Your personal style is now your logo

In fact, it seems that now we’re the brand. Designers and marketers are looking for ways to get their products associated with people. It’s not just about us wanting to live in their worlds, now they want to be worthy of our personal brands.

It’s now about the brand of You.

The second half of this essay will discuss how these changes have turned the concept of branding on its head. So stay tuned for part two.

To us here at OTC, this is an evolving analysis on the rapidly changing landscape of branding and retail, and the pendulum swing of influence from marketers to consumers. Please feel free to comment on this essay and add your own thoughts.

While OTC focuses primarily on the physical side of style and culture – clothing, bags, shoes, ties, watches, etc. – equally if not more important is one’s intellect.

Being aware and literate about what’s going on in the world is, frankly, far more vital than what shirt you’re wearing. There are many, many pretty faces out there with nothing worthwhile to say; do not be another one.

Can you talk about world affairs, the environment, or trends in design? Do you have an opinion on art or literature? If you are American, do you actually understand what’s going on in other parts of the world? Sure, you like clothing, but do you appreciate changes affecting the business side of Savile Row or the environmental impact of mass market fashion retailers?

What do you know about global culture; craft vs. commodity?

When it comes to getting useful information about the big picture of global culture and style, Monocle is simply outstanding.

I have written about and referenced Monocle before, but I feel this remarkable multimedia publication deserves some additional attention.

The Monocle shop

What is Monocle? First, it’s a remarkable magazine. Each substantial issue is divided into sections covering affairs, business, culture, design, and edits. It’s packed with news, policy, insights, reviews, trends, and products from across the globe. As an American, I greatly appreciate the fact that the U.S. is treated as just another country, which helps provide a truly global feel to the magazine.

In fact, I was once chatting with New York clothier Jay Kos, a successful menswear entrepreneur and owner of his eponymous Fifth Avenue shop, and he told me that Monocle was about the only news source he bothers with.

Second, Monocle is a fully functional mixed media website. It’s like the magazine gone digital. Print articles from recent issues come to life online in video segments narrated by the story’s authors. Those with a subscription can access additional material, videos and news.

Monocle’s website

Third, Monocle is a brand. In addition to the magazine, lovely enough to stack on your coffee table by the way, and the website, Monocle has a collection of branded products.

Elegantly functional things are offered, many created specially for Monolce; from bags to furniture, Skeppshult V-Bikes to Valextra notebooks. They can be purchased through the website, the magazine or by visiting Monocle’s small pop-up stores located in Marylebone (London), Los Angeles and, shortly, Palma de Mallorca.

Tyler doing Monocle Weekly

I’ve also become a big fan of the Monocle Weekly, a downloadable podcast akin to an NPR culture/news/interview radio show. Great for the Metro ride into work.

I’ll leave you with founder and Editor-in-chief Brule’s own description of this remarkable venture:

With a keen focus, strong reporting, sharp wit and more classic approach to design, we’ve dubbed our venture Monocle….Focused on informing and entertaining an international audience of disillusioned readers, listeners and viewers, it is our intention to create a community of the most interested and interesting people in the world.

Christian Chensvold leads a great discussion with Johnson, who filmed one of my favorite makes-you-squirm-in-your-seat documentaries, “Born Rich.”

Jamie’s position as heir to the Johnson & Johnson fortune and an interest in history and psychology give weight to his honest observations of those born to wealth. If you haven’t seen it, “Born Rich” is an unflinching and mostly unflattering first-person examination of the wasted opportunities provided to many of society’s wealthiest children.

Jamie Johnson is a rare kind of man; raised in the lap of luxury and opportunity but driven to understand what that means how those like him fit into the world.

Sure, it’s easy to spend your time on such seemingly esoteric endeavors when money is literally no object. But wait until you see what many of his peers do to occupy their free time – you’ll probably want to hand out torches and pitchforks.

Companies like Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus and Saks which have so far been able to ride above the economy’s troubled waters, are now getting caught in the unprecedented economic downturn. In a nutshell, people are realizing that while they do need clothes, they don’t necessarily need fashion; or at least pricey fashion. This is an abrupt turnaround from the last several years of aspirational aquistion.

Basically, the party’s over.

Everyone’s Feeling the Pain
Until recently, the conventional wisdom held that prestigious retailers were more or less immune to the credit crunch affecting the masses. Their affluent customers appeared to be just fine – if only a little more judicious with their spending than in the past. For many companies, that mirage has evaporated. In October Neiman Marcus and Saks posted declines of 27.6 percent 16.6 percent, respectively. Nordstrom, which lowered its third-quarter earnings outlook to a range of 32 to 37 cents, suffered a 15.7 percent comparable-store decline.

Boston Area Gap Store

Specialty retailers weren’t spared either. Gap North America and International put up comparable store declines of 14 and 5 percent, respectively, modest in comparison to Banana Republic and Old Navy, which registered decreases of 17 and 20 percent, respectively. Ouch.

According to Burt Tansky, CEO of Neiman Marcus, high end customer service will not suffer. In today’s DNR, he stresses that the stores will continue to offer “high-level service” and that associates will continue to be work closely with customers. “They are obviously still shopping, just shopping less and shopping more focused.” He also said his customers’ shopping habits are very much tied to the stock market and that “based on our experience in previous business cycles, we believe our customers’ buying levels will increase once the economic environment stabilizes.”

Though many retailers were expecting soft numbers going into the fall, the reality of the situation is on the bleaker side. Slowing sales and cautious shoppers are hitting everyone in the sector harder than anticipated. This is not a purely domestic virus. No, the international flavor of this crisis is a sign of things to come. When American debt held in Asian funds invested in by German insurers goes bad because of residential foreclosures in Detroit, you know we are in a new place.

Bucking the Trend
Mid-tier retailers like Macy’s, J.C. Penny and Gottschalks had poor showings too, but not nearly as bad and their high-end counterparts. Discounters like BJ’s Wholesale – the place you go to buy a 20 pack of undershirts – showed positive numbers and WalMart, almost 2.5 percent. The message is clear, for the commodities of life, brand is no longer king; value is.

Ralph Lauren’s Chicago Flagship

All that said, which company totally out-performed the market? Ralph Lauren. The company posted a second-quarter profit gain of 39.6 percent that beat analysts’ estimates by 33 cents. For those of you who are not into market lingo – that is huge. Normally companies beat expectations by two or three cents, not 33.

The company announced that its online presence, RalphLauren.com posted double digit gains across all major categories. One reason for this strong showing could be the company’s brand diversification. With distinctive yet connected brands covering all price points, Ralph Lauren is able to compensate for slower sales of Purple Label inventory with greater demand in Chaps. The company also assumed full control of its Japanese operations this year, a move that will finally balance local inventory that heretofore always seemed skewed disproportionately toward menswear.

What does this all mean for clothing retailers? Well, first it means that things will probably get worse as we lurch toward what can only be described as an anemic looking holiday season. Actually, anemic may be too generous an adjective. Second, this situation is also a chickens-coming-home-to-roost situation for many high-end labels that courted mass market shoppers with discounted luxury. I wrote at length about this earlier in the year.

When the fiscal dust settles, we will invariably be in better shape as a market overall. Companies with thin financials and leveraged balance sheets will have fallen by the wayside. Those with solid business plans and strong fundamentals will see new opportunities here and abroad.

Consumers will likely set the tone for a while as designers and manufacturers keep their noses to the grindstone, producing goods which customers actually want to buy. Passionate visionaries will be able to capitalize on the new breathing space in the market and present collections that can help define our new economic and social reality.

If nothing else, this turbulent and exciting moment in history is signaling to people everywhere that no country, population, or financial demographic is an island anymore. Financially speaking, we are a vast interconnected web of commerce and no one is immune from catching the proverbial cold.

As deep and technical as that all sounds, I’m really curious as to how this will all be reflected in a runway show.

If you have not yet done so please, and it pains me to say this, turn off your computer and go vote right now.

Apart from my personal belief that voting is a civic duty akin to paying taxes, keeping your lawn neat and helping old ladies across the street, this year our country is facing a collection of important and dynamic issues that will shape our nation and our world for years to come.

The votes cast or not cast today will reverberate in countries around the world. Every election is important, but this year provides citizens with the ability to make a fresh start here in Washington. It is also historic because of the candidates themselves. Either way barriers will be broken; be it Barack Obama as our first black president or Sarah Palin as our first female vice president.

Though it’s easy to say that all politicians are the same, it’s just not true. The candidates for president are different men, with different views about our role the world, economics, geopolitical conflicts, taxes and social issues. So please take a few moments and learn about each candidate’s views and plans. If neither Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain work for you, there is a Green Party’s Cynthia McKinney, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, the Constitution Party’s Chuck Baldwin, and perennial independent, Ralph Nader.

As I stood on line this morning and waited for more than an hour to vote, two thoughts ran through my mind. The first was that I’ve never seen a crowd quite this big before. The second was that in many countries throughout the world voting can be a perilous and even fatal endeavor.

The simple yet profound act of choosing our leaders by secret ballot is most certainly taken for granted here. That’s not a condemnation, but rather a fact: those of us born in the U.S. have never experienced anything else. We cannot imagine not being able to vote or to not vote; it is the benefit of a comfortable democracy. Yet in recent years we have seen the lengths to which people in other countries will go to secure this right and the price that many have paid to do so, too often the ultimate price.

And don’t forget that you are not only voting for a president. On my ballot alone where choices for judges, members of the school board, and members of Congress; ballot questions; and potential changes to the state constitution. So, all I ask is that you take the time to go vote; it is a wonderful privilege granted to us through the efforts and pain of others.

Of course, you should also make a point to dress well when you head out to the polls. When doing your civic duty, look like it matters. Because it does.